Trade Isles strategy.
How to reach 12 points first.

The short version

Put your two starting ports on different resources, deliver a shipping contract on every turn you can, and use your free supply to finish something this turn rather than to stockpile. Contracts are the cheapest points in the game; ports and upgrades keep the goods coming so you can afford them.

Every tide number is equally likely

Each turn the active captain rolls one six-sided die. On 1 to 5, every port on an island with that tide number produces, for every player. On a 6 nothing produces and the storm moves. So each tide number comes up one roll in six. No number is better than another, and you can pick islands by resource and room to grow.

Because everyone’s roll counts, a port works on every turn, not just yours. Here is what one port makes per round of turns:

Your free supply after each roll adds one good of your choice every round. That is worth as much as two ordinary ports in a three-captain game, and it is the one income you fully control. Use it to fill the exact gap in your next build.

Placing your first two ports

1. Two different resources. Every build needs a mix: a lane takes timber and cloth, a port takes timber, stone and grain. Two islands of the same resource leave you short of everything else and leaning on trades and the market.
2. Two different tide numbers. The average is the same either way, but different numbers give steadier income instead of feast or famine.
3. Point your lane at open water. Your starting lane should lead toward empty islands. Lanes cannot pass through another captain’s port, so a port surrounded by rivals can get boxed in.
4. Neighbors are allowed. Islands next to another captain’s port are fine; only the island itself must be empty.

What each point costs

Ports score 1, upgraded ports score 2, and contracts add 2 or 3 prestige. Counting the goods you hand over:

Contracts are clearly the cheapest points, but you can deliver only one per turn, three are on display at a time, and there are 20 in all. Ports and upgrades are slower points that pay you back over the rest of the game, which is what keeps a contract-a-turn plan fed.

How fast a game goes

To see the pace, we ran 3,000 full games for each table size between the built-in computer captains, using the game’s own rules engine. The computer captains never offer trades, so a human table that trades well can move faster.

So the typical winner builds one or two extra ports, maybe one upgrade, and gets about two thirds of the points from contracts. Every game in these runs was decided by someone reaching 12, long before the 24-round limit.

A simple plan for your first games

1. Rounds 1–2: build a lane and a port toward a resource you don’t have yet. A third resource makes every later cost easier to pay.
2. From then on: look at the three contracts first on every turn. If one is within reach, use your supply, a trade or the market to finish it, and deliver it.
3. First upgrade: upgrade the port whose resource you collect most. You get double output and can trade that resource 2:1 at the market.
4. Near the end: you win the moment you reach 12 during your own action phase. At 9 points, a 3-point contract wins; at 10, a small one does. Count before you end your turn.

Using the storm

When you roll a 6, you move the storm to another island, and that island stops producing until the storm moves again. Put it on the leader’s upgraded port, or on the island that feeds the contract they are clearly saving for. Expect the same in return: don’t lean on a single upgraded island for everything. The computer captains place the storm on a rival’s upgraded port when there is one.

The market is a tool, not a plan

Up to three times per turn you can swap 3 of one resource for 1 of another, or 2 for 1 with an upgraded port of that resource. It is expensive, so use it to finish a build or contract this turn, not to reshape your whole hand. A trade with another captain is usually cheaper; see trading tips.